Ever wonder how much of a production hit the rookie RB’s are going to take when they enter the pros? Trying to figure out which RB to draft in a dynasty league can sometimes feel like throwing darts. In order to answer this question we ask “how many times does the RB have to rush to get a TD? Bobby Bobiluchi attempts to compare rookie RB’s to veterans by reviewing the impact veterans players experienced via this metric. Bobby does this by comparing their 1st three years in the pros to their college years. The table below shows a sample of RB’s and their Professional Rushing Production Decrease (PRPD), based on touches per TD. Aaron Jones tops the list with a -24% Decrease. In other words he didn’t have to touch the ball as many times in the pros as he did in college to score a TD. He is a freak of nature and became more efficient at the professional level, while everyone else took a hit. Take a look.
[ninja_tables id=”76”]
This does not tell us the whole picture, as it only accounts for rushing stats. Receiving stats are being compiled and will be added in the near future. Some of these RB’s have been in the league for longer than 3 years so the data shown is not relevant to the most recent performances. For instance Dalvin Cook is arguably the best RB in the league at the moment, but he comes in dead last out the sample size of 12. This is because the data reflects availability, as well as, performance. The finished table will allows us to compare incoming rookies college performances to the veterans college performances. There is more to it than the numbers can describe. A players usage will dictate a lot of their success. In the future, we will build an analysis on usage by coach. Applying AI will allows us to calculate a RB’s expected performance in their first three years based on their college performance and their team setting. So for now this is a building block for use in future analysis. More to follow…..
